The Projected Rise of Biomethane Production in Europe
Cory Rogers, Partner, Green Executives
This month we released Green Executives’ The Next Biogas-Biomethane Decade (see below to download the report). It draws on insights from six European Biogas/ biomethane leaders.
This sector is at an important moment, with biomethane demand projected to reach 10 billion cubic metres in Europe over the next few years.
This is the finding of a study published this month for the European Biogas Association (EBA), by Guidehouse and Common Futures: the EU industry could feasibly use around 10 bcm of biomethane a year by 2030, and rising to 30 bcm by 2040 and 35 bcm by 2050.
Interestingly, Europe’s entire installed biomethane capacity stood at 8.2 bcm in mid-2026 (EBA).
The authors of the EBA report make it clear this is modelling, not a forecast, and it comes from the sector’s own association. What struck me is how closely that mapping matches what six leaders told us for our Green Executives report.
The most efficient use of Biomethane
The EBA study scores biomethane highest wherever it can run through existing kilns, furnaces and boilers. That covers ceramics, glass and high-temperature heat, which alone accounts for 9 bcm by 2050.
In our report, Charles McAllister of the Green Gas Taskforce made the same point to us: biomethane works in the same boilers and furnaces with no changes. Franco Lusuriello of BTS Biogas went further. Wind and solar run some of the time. Biogas, he said, runs “24 hours per day, including Christmas.
Carbon is a product, not a waste stream.
In urea and methanol, the study finds biomethane wins partly because it carries its own biogenic carbon. That saves producers from buying in renewable CO₂ separately. Jörg Lennertz of VORN Bioenergy described the same thing from the plant side:
“Technology can easily turn a biogas plant almost like into a biorefinery where biomethane is just one of many bio products.”
Christian Cuenot of avanca sees the next step as using that CO₂ on site to make e-methane.
Hydrogen is the open question.
The study’s single largest block is primary steel, at around 7 bcm by 2050. Even there, hydrogen catches up by 2050 only “if the assumed very large hydrogen cost reductions materialise.”
Franco Lusuriello was blunter:
“Hydrogen has been over-evaluated, in my opinion.”
The EBA study also puts steel demand at roughly zero before 2030, because new plants won’t be built in time. That is an investment-cycle story, and it echoes Franco’s case for support schemes that last as long as the loans do.
Where the model meets reality.
The study assumes the gas grid is available to biomethane throughout. Kim Kragelund, former CFO of Nature Energy, told us something different: some grid operators are reluctant to connect new plants.
“Grid operators should welcome new customers… But right now, it’s just the opposite.”
On paper, the infrastructure advantage is already won. In practice, someone still has to negotiate it
Keep the talent, retire the pipes.
Not everyone thinks the gas grid is biomethane’s natural home. Michael Barnard, strategist and author who focuses on 40- to 80-year decarbonisation scenarios grounded in physics, economics and human behaviour, argues that gas utilities chase biomethane and hydrogen partly because those molecules keep the old system, and the old business, alive. He discusses this in a recent Substack article. He doubts it’s the cheapest way to heat buildings. The industrial demand in the EBA study sidesteps that critique. Steelworks, kilns and glass furnaces are not homes.
His sharper point is about people. A gas network is engineers, field crews, safety systems and decades of regulatory know-how, not just pipe. Barnard’s advice to policymakers is that “there is little value in unnecessarily cornering an incumbent when conversion is possible.”
From where I sit, that’s a talent argument. The skills that run a gas network are the same ones a biomethane platform needs. That covers operating under pressure, maintaining safety-critical assets, and working with grid operators and regulators. Some of the leaders this sector needs may already be working inside the networks.
The rules decide the price.
The EBA study’s results depend heavily on assumed carbon prices of €100 per tonne in 2030, rising to €253 in 2040. Christian Cuenot, named the regulatory environment as
“probably the single risk that most investors are worried about.”
Frederik Møller Laugesen of CIP sees investors backing resilience and energy independence, which is a theme as much as a return.
What this means for the people
This is where I spend my days. If industry becomes the main buyer, the commercial job changes. Selling to a steelmaker or a glassworks is not the same as collecting a feed-in tariff. Christian put it simply: the industry is becoming more merchant, and leaders need to know trading. Frederik expects a dedicated commercial officer for offtake in every serious platform.
The people we already struggle to find are the ones who close rather than source: origination leaders with real networks among farmers and waste operators. Add offtake and trading skill to that list, and the pool gets smaller still.
The study suggests that the demand is there. Whether the sector has the leaders to meet it is the question I’d want answered before I committed capital.
Read our full report
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